[trunker]

well its a bit more complicated than that, but yes you are fundamentally right.

however, putting on a smiley face, and not saying the economy is bad (which it is) doesnt get you a job.

heres the thing, in a nutshell, a bunch of investors thought the markets were going too high too fast so they bailed out while they could. because of this alot of banks started losing money in their funds, so they in turn bailed out. however, they forgot that alot of "their" money wasnt actually "their" money, and that by jumping out quick they were actually making things worse for themselves. so things spiral out of hand the way they did which led to lehmans collapse, etc, etc,...

companies tighten their belts cos their lines of credit are not renewed, so eventually people get fired, cant find jobs, tighten their belts and start saying the economy sucks.

when enough people say it sucks, it starts sucking for enough people. its just the way we humans think.

and no the media aint exactly helping, but then they are the media, its their job to pander.

having said that, i think i prefer the fear mongering compared to the "everything is loverly" type of news the majority of japan gets fed. but maybe they were tired of years and years of what the west is only just going through now. it certainly hasnt helped to lift the economy a smidgen.

things will get better and i think the prevailing concensus is that the worst is behind us. now its just a matter of how friggin slow the recovery will be. and its more than likely that the media will be partly responsible for all the stops and starts as they keep saying, "its been 5 minutes and nothing is getting better!!!" like they dont understand that a global economy is bound to take time to catch up to better sentiment. the world is always about 6-12 months behind market sentiment so things wont be geting better for another 4 quarters i reckon.

but the simple fact is that businesses dont have their old lines of credit anymore. without that they cant buy raw materials, so they have to lay people off if they are going to keep some jobs instead of going belly up completely.

heres the thing tho, i know all that it will take is for 5 billion people to go out and simultaneous buy stuff tomorrow. but if i dont know if i'll have a job tomorrow, and if i dont have savings incase i get canned i'm not buy a stick of gum let alone a damn car. and if i feel that way, then i'm not about to try and tell myself that it isnt bad now am i?

sentiment is what started this, it is what is continuing it, and it is the only thing that will get us out.

funny isnt it how our physical lives, our houses, our pensions, etc,.... all rely on something as intangible as sentiment, and not even our own.

how sad is that?

oy long ass reply.