There wouldn't be a war because:
1. The South Korean public is already frustrated against the "El Presidente".
2. Too many officers in the South Korean Navy are already frustrated against the government. A military coup would be a better possibility.
3. Potential civil riots in every major city against the government and the US military establishments. (See the current riots in Thailand with more dose of bloodshed)
North Korea doesn't need a war. North Korea can always hope to brew civil riots and anti-governmental demos down south.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tsuwabuki
Word within the US Surface Warfare Officer community is that there are inconsistencies that don't make much sense if DPRK really had sunk the ship.
Of particular interest is the reports of how many pieces the RoK has of the torpedo, and how they traced the serial numbers.
According to various officers who serve as and have served as WEPS (weapons officer aboard USN ships) if the torpedo really did what it was supposed to have done, it would have been far too damaged to provide such clear cut evidence.
By and large most SWOs I talk to (some commanders and captains) don't think the report is accurate.
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Very accurate. The problem is that the torpedo piece is likely a fake. There can't be any marker writing in the harsh undersea environment for over a month under a harsh explosion. Yet we see a rusty evidence of torpedo shard with 1번 (１番) written on it
by a blue marker. Here's the problem: the standard North Korean practice of numbering items and issues is 호(号), not 번(番). So we have a North Korean maritime projectile with a South Korean style numbering convention.
The funniest thing I heard in a while is that the government reports claim that the marker marking is a handwriting style of "North Korea" (北韓体), which is coincidentally a common handwriting for many middle age South Koreans.