[cranks]

I'm not an expert on this at all but it sounds to me 東風21D is a Frankenstein monster of a ballistic missile and an Air-to-Ship Missile. Delivering an ASM with a ballistic missile is new, but the US sure has tons of counter measures for ASMs. Still, even if the US can shoot down 99% of them, it will still be a great threat, or at least repellant, as it shouldn't be that hard for Chinese to build 100s of them. That plus the submarines China is building may hinder US carrier's access to the seas near China. This brings up an interesting point which I hope is pertinent to the topic.

The US military force in Japan is there mainly to protect Taiwan and Korea. Korea isn't crucial to Japanese survival but Taiwan is, as it is in the way of an important Japanese sea lane and close to Senkaku where there said to be oil, possibly as much as the amount Iraq has. Now the US's main support to Taiwan will be USS George Washington or its successor. And if it becomes hard for carriers to get close to Taiwan, it seems to me that the importance of the airbases in Japan will be more significant, especially the ones in Okinawa.

mmm. I really don't see any practical scenario with which Japan can afford the US military to withdraw completely.