China buys gold, challenges US dollar - Features - Al Jazeera English
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Originally Posted by Sangetsu
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America's population increase mainly due to Mestizo migration from the South, provide it with reduction in population of European origin who will be less than 50% in 2050. This has already happened in places like California and will happen in other states beginning with South western states. This demographic shift has the potential to destabilize and polarize the nation between white and non-white (although Mestizo's claim them to be white and have in some instances more dislike for Black African Americans) parts and if anything it will weaken the current united and homogeneous character of the US polity where people of European origin are still 65% of the population.
America's geographic location provides it with isolation and the two ponds on both sides provides it with separation from Eurasian land mass, which is good in war time, but China and India's location occupying a good portion of Eurasia provide them with opportunity to build rail and road ways to integrate and trade with other countries within Eurasian land mass more easily and cheaply. China is in the process of building or cooperating with Central Asian countries for building of pipelines, railways and roadways and reduce its transit time to Europe, essentially revitalizing the silk route. That's a tremendous advantage that the American continent does not have. Other than less than a billion living in the American continental land mass, the rest more than five billion of Humanity live in Eurasian and African landmass, which are close to each other and connected by land mass in Sinai/suez area. So this logic stated by Friedman of Stratfor fame, in my opinion, does not hold much water like many of his other premises, because the struggle and warfare today and in the future will be economic rather than people shooting at each other with bullets or missiles.
In this era of global trade, self sufficiency in food growing arable land or energy is hardly a measure of high economic strength, consider the case of Brazil or Saudi Arabia and Japan. Indeed, my prediction is that the US will become kind of a bigger and more advanced version of Brazil (arable land) or Russia (energy) in the coming decades.
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Originally Posted by Sangetsu
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Don't you think professionals at Rand Corporation have more facts and information to come to a more sound projection about weapon systems superiority than yours, as described in that paper posted? Did you get a chance to read it or at least skim through it and see the sources they are using?
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Originally Posted by Ronin4hire
lol.. this place hasn't changed much. So many people talking out of their ass.
Anyway.. China will never rule the world.
At best it will become the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific region (currently this is the USA).
But I don't think it will ever have the global reach in terms of hard power that the USA had in the latter part of the 20th century.
I think that the USA will lose it's global power status and become a regional power in the coming decades also. That's based on the decline of the USA we're witnessing at the moment with no end in sight.
I think you're all missing the point aswell. The next hundred years or so I think we'll see non-state-actors (Corporations and perhaps ideological movements that transcend national boundaries) as becoming increasingly relevant in International Politics.
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I give you credit for at least considering that both US and China will become regional powers, which will be true initially, but then the dynamics of change will not stop there in my opinion. Things will change as China and India will not be happy with having less per capita GNP than other smaller countries, once they reach overwhelming military predominance over these much smaller countries. Leveraging their military predominance they will start using coercion and playing imperial games, as all imperial powers or powerful nations have played in the past. Why is that, in my view it is because of a fundamental characteristic of human nature as well as all life forms- will to power, as described by Nietzsche, it is to get power and hold it at any cost. This will not change in just a few decades or centuries, if ever.
Non state actors will have their role, but currently ideologues like OBL have won because of mistakes by the states:
Ten years after the mouse roared - Opinion - Al Jazeera English
and I would say that corporations (MNC's) have won also because of failure of the states. So there is a learning curve to learn how to deal with them by the states, but states have way too much power to retreat and be side lined. Democracies and people in them will reassert and take back power in their hand, so there is no longer a rule By corporation, Of Corporation and For corporation like the US, that makes mistakes and engages the ideologue non-state actors. If the US cannot get out this phase quickly it will only help other powerful states like China and India to take over the global scene.
US corporations have committed treasonous acts by weakening the economic power and hence total power of the US, but corporations in other states will not be allowed this liberty I believe. The public in the US need to wake up, people in these other rising powers are already wide awake and alert, I believe they will not allow their corporations to travel a path that will take down their country.