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03-06-2009, 03:44 AM
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The funny thing is, according to my Zainichi Korean relative living in Japan, there is a growing but subtle and non-aggressive anti-American sentiment in several Japanese universities. As ironic as it sounds at least the media will never catch this... But hey, Russia is trying to win Japan's heart. It's not a bad thing. For America? Well, that's a tricky thought since there are too many things that are dubious about Obama's policies. Let's hope America wouldn't be a closet Communist country.  
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03-06-2009, 04:01 AM
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China - GDP should flourish again but this time based less on export and more on internal consumption if the government plays its cards right (which it is by stimulating internal consumption through government rebates and infrastructure construction). Japan - GDP would stablise as long as they export more to Asia since US is practically broke, they should be alright (hence the political shift towards China and Asia in general). USA - They are debasing their currency by running the printing press 24/7, so the US dollar value is going to hit the floor and the US economy will implode caused by double digit inflation and then double digit interest rate (if they don't want to turn it into a hyperinflation situation), by how much, we don't know but this one will hurt. There is a possibility that the US dollar will not longer be the world reserve currency.
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03-06-2009, 04:33 AM
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Im willing to give Obama some space for about a year before i really start hammering down on him. I wont lie i voted for him and i voted for him for my own personal reasons because i believe the man really does care. Also, he did something none of the opposition did which was important to me he talked boosting education which is sure fire way to teach people "do not live out side your means" In a recent poll it showed a fair amount of people were not happy about parts of the stimulus but that same poll people said they would live with it if it helped the country. Americans are giving Obama some breathing room because they feel he did cause this he inherited it which he did. Im actually starting to see a change in and around DC people are starting to realize that the way business is done and relying on credit is not the answer and we will see lots of these high profile investors go away. In 2 years time i say we will starting to see things get a tiny bit better not much but a start. As long as a viable plan of action is in place and checks and balances are obeyed things can turn around. I am not feeling the economic crunch that much why because i dont rely on credit i manage my money well and i have a job where im so valuable that it would take 3 people to replace me so my job wont do it and pay 3 different salaries im hoping my fellow Americans after things start to get better will keep the lessons they we will all learn over the next couple of years. I still see the US and Japan doing business together not as usual but more on a even playing field we all know how politicians like to talk a good game doesnt matter what country your from. Hell some Japanese are saying that most of there politicians are worthless weather they follow America or not. I can understand some anti American positions in Japan my hope is that its not directed at normal citizens. I dislike a lot of Irans policies but that doesn't mean i hate its people. But i firmly believe before anything can start to get better it has to hit rock bottom first. Obamas cabinet is full of people who are very well qualified to get things on track by the end of his term i say on track not better. Hope is a very useful tool to use when trying to stimulate an economy and little by little i feel anger and resentment will subside in Russia, China, Japan and the US but people are scared and when that happens well our history is full of it i dont need to say it. 
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03-06-2009, 04:44 AM
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Economic 101, when in recession, increase money supply so you can stimulate demand which will in turn crank up production. Problem, USA doesn't have any production capacity, it's all in China, so stimulating demand is only going to screw the trade balance even more. What's more, Obama has pledged $53Ts in future spendings on medicare and whatever else when they already got $0 in the bank, this will send the national debt out of this universe and if China, Japan and the oil rich countries says no thanks, US is just going to implode. Sinestra, you will be the victim of this anyway despite doing all the right things because the dollar you hold now won't be worth much in the future due to rampant inflation and the tax rate is going to go through the roof if US is going to have any hope of getting out of this hole.
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03-06-2009, 05:17 AM
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I wont allow our sick nor our old to go without medical benefits i feel the money pledged for medicare is a must. You are right about production which is where the favor for outsourcing jobs overseas will end it needs to stop. If i only Gen X and Gen Y would get it, Our grandparents and great grandparents had it right the US needs to return to that way of thinking to get back on track. My fear is some most of these old stalwarts in office dont get it they think business as usual is going to fix things over time and it wont. This is a new era and they refuse to accept it all the while hurting general public. Like i said im willing to give him time hes been in office for 6 weeks im willing to give him sometime to work on plans. We gave Bush 8 damn years (not me personally) i think we can give Obama some room for moment he has surrounded himself with some damn good people who can get shit done. Im not saying everything is going to be alright im just saying for once i want to try to be optimistic and give it a chance to work than to be down in the dumps for another 4 years 8 years was enough for me. Dont get me wrong i agree with you on many of your statements but from my school mates that now work in Washington there are other things on the way that Obama will propose.
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03-06-2009, 05:25 AM
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Sinestra, I sympathise with you but everything the US government is doing is contrary to the school of economic development (go pick up any economics text book). This stimulous package is going to artificially create jobs that the government is going to allocate when the best thing to do is let the market decide. Besides, these jobs are created with borrowed money the US government doesn't have. This isn't capitalism, this is socialism. And regarding outsourcing, you are taking the wrong stance. Yes jobs are being outsourced because it is cheap, the only way for US to be competitive is lowering their wage. But you got unions that will not accept economic reality and call for protectionism which will make US implode even more. The people in the US must realise they can't spend like fat cats anymore and foreign banks isn't their credit card. If I were you, I'd buy some gold so when this thing collapses, at least you have real money.
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03-06-2009, 10:47 AM
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Politically at a global level.... my predictions are quite predictable and not much of a departure from todays situation but here goes... The US will continue to lose power... but won't lose the moral support of it's traditional allies to the Chinese in the near future despite China's continued rise to power. (Western Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan). What I believe will happen is the US' traditional allies will continue to push for a more equal relationship and we'll see a more equal US and Western/liberal democratic alliance than we've seen in the past. This loose, Western, cultural alliance of sorts will still be a more potent political (and military) force than Russia and China put together (which is really simply an alliance of necessity). Japan is currently a part of the above "circle of trust" if you will. Liberal democracies would rather see the US as the leader of the world... despite it's misgivings rather than an authoritarian China or Russia (yes I do believe Russia is still an authoritarian state). China will continue to grow. But will only ever be the world's factory despite ambitions of superpower status. They will never hold the position the US does for the simple fact that China has no charisma. The US can talk about ideas, laws, justice (despite some if it's actions which are contrary to those things)... China can not. China's growing middle class... while a sign of prosperity... also spells uncertainty for the CCP. India I will mention because everyone seems to ignore. But they are the world's second fastest growing economy. They will continue to grow and become a more important player in the Asian balance of power game. India are rivals of China and more importantly are a democracy. I think we'll see India's influence in the region grow.
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03-06-2009, 11:33 AM
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China is in a trasitional stage where it is going from a exporting nation to a consumers nation. It needs to for its economy to survive, it can't be a world factory forever, because the rest of the world is practically broke, given your prediction, it will collapse before it even gets to that stage. I mean you are letting your ideals rear its ugly head again and it is totally unrealistic. Democracy trumphs Authoritarism, as Singapore being a shiny example, thats just a whole lot of crap. Sound economic management leads to prosperity, not democracy. These days US government is owning private assets at an alarming rate, it is turning in to a socialist state. I don't blame you for not being a economist, cuz clearly the things you are saying is completely contrary to economic realities. Remember, money talks.
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03-06-2009, 11:59 AM
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Why? People are too cynical about it. Quote:
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03-06-2009, 12:06 PM
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But tell me... how will China become a consumer nation without a middle class? You keep referring to Singapore as empirical evidence that you're right and I'm wrong.. I see it as proof that things are not as black or white as you think I'm saying they are. Sound economic management may not necessarily lead to democracy... but it leads in it's direction. Also you dismiss ideals... but the fact is that ideals are powerful. For example... ever hear of Democratic Peace theory?
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