Will China rule the world?

[Atredies]

Originally Posted by Sinestra

China becoming dominate economically will eventually happen but you will also see the rise of other nations like India.

india will never rise at this rate. india is also doing the same thing like china. get their rich and smart businesspeople out of india to singapore or to the united kingdom at all cost.

The US is very resourceful and innovative when it comes to the changing of the tides.

we americans en mass believe too much in politics, too little in merits. we need to fix that before we can say that we are resourceful and innovative in this turbulent world. this is why i do not like conventional democracy all around the world. conventional democracy of today disrespects healthy capitalism and the rule of law.

Btw out of those 80% 68% of China's rich move to a residence in the US where they later obtain citizenship and stay here.

and they make closer business ties with mainland china, buy huge tracts of land in the west coast, take over important buildings in washington dc and new york city, buys important shares in big american companies.

you do know that these chinese billionaires are turning america into another wealthy macau, right? this is why i love obama. he loves china so much on america's behalf. is this a bad thing? no. it is a survival instinct of a nation.

[astrogaijin]

I saw something today about this that makes sense. China may be able to get a better economy than the US over time, but it will never be as large of a superpower because there is too much of a difference between the rich and poor. That difference does not allow for economic growth needed for a superpower to function.

[siokan]

When the environmental problem of China and the problem of the real estate are seen, I recall old Japan.
The debt balance of the local government is anxious.

[tazzy]

Originally Posted by sutekidane

You should see the post he made:


Yes, I was sarcastic in my post, but I spoke the truth as I see it, and I have the right to freely express my opinion. If it is hard for you or others to swallow that's just too bad. I will let the forum admins decide if I had broken any forum rules.

But using words like "jack ass" is rude and disrespectful. So please don't try to teach me manners, after calling me such names. In my posts, I have not made a single name calling or use any disrespectful word to any posters. I have put down nations yes, because I think they have performed poorly in pursuing their own and their allies interest, which I can explain in great detail, if you or anyone else care to engage in a debate, without name calling and personal put downs.

I don't see what's wrong with asking if you know the meaning of a word. You were failing to understand my point and seemed to be taking 'comparable' as 'identical'. I was simply explaining myself. There's nothing wrong with being a non-native English speaker (hell, I'm not one!), and heaven knows I don't know the subtleties of every single word in English.


Watch the youtube video I posted. It shows a key problem in China's rise.
Consider too the rising living standards of people in China, this will mean they want to be paid fairer wages, which in turn will mean China won't be the place to go to get things made cheaply. Mark my words, unless things in China take a big turn for the worse, in a decade or two we'll be shifting such work elsewhere....which will mean things will take a bad turn in China.


And yeah, an English language forum about Japan probally isn't the most likely place in the world to find Japanese people. Try 2channel or something,

[Gokiburi]

What goes around, comes around. It'S been posted already, China's trade surplus is only worth what the debtors are making it worth. China'S rise to an economic superpower has been - in some respect - similar to Japan's post-WWII rise. Back in the sixties 'Made in Japan' was synonymous for crappy reverse-engineered copies of 'western' technology, especially in the sector of consumer electronics. But Japan learned fast, and while 'western' CEO's were fast asleep, smiling condescendingly about these odd folks from far away , MITI was born... A poster displayed in Detroit in the eighties : 'Are you hungry? Eat your Mazda!', says it all. Now westerners were flocking to Japanese factories and plants - kanban system, quality control, what have you... They learned fast too, they had too, their jobs were at stake.
China started the same, within the framework of globalisation, western AND Japanese firms turned to China for cheap labour. Wait another ten years and China will look for cheap labour for is own brands. So far the similarities.

Differences: Geologically speaking, Japan is a drowned mountain range perched on top of a very lively tectonic plate and has no raw materials worth mentioning. China is one heck of a slab of real estate fairly well stocked with some very sought after raw materials ( lithium, for example ). Japan is a democracy, China isn't. Whereas democratic leaders often make decisions that are geared more towards getting re-elected or staying on power ( thus often producing utter bullshit ), China has no need for such luxuries. While western politicians still play the good uncle on their trips to Africa ( still one of the continents with large untapped deposits of raw materials ), Chinese businesses and trade delegations move quietly yet very efficiently to secure access to their needs.

One the military side, China's got nukes since the late fifties, a standing army so numerous that it - so it is said - could cause an earthquake that would flatten Moscow if all of em hopped off the Great Wall at the same time... China'S also still a bit sore about Unca Chiang hightailing it to Formosa aka Taiwan, but Unca Sam is keeping an eye on that one, so a little saber-rattling now and then is pretty much it. But if China sneezes, the littler powers around it do get jumpy.

Will China rule the world ?

No.

It already does.

[sutekidane]

Indian and Chinese wealthy individuals moving to more developed part of the planet is a world wide phenomenon as more places, more often than not English speaking, have a welcoming multi cultural environment and allow migration of people with capital. Wealthy people want the best schools for their children, safe and secure nieghborhood, clean environment and also a safe place to park or invest their capital. With rise of the Asian Tigers such as Korea and Taiwan, we have seen many wealthy families from these countries move to the US in the past, now the same thing is happening for China and India moving to different places. In the micro scale these migrations of wealthy people help the growth of diaspora community, I would think. For example a Chinese investor would open an All You Can Eat (AYCE) Buffet restaurant that would provide employment for local Chinese students or new immigrants. I have also seen Chinese pharmaceutical companies moving part of their company in the US, so they would be closer to the US market and produce food supplements while most of the ingredients used in the formulation would be sourced from China. These are all supposedly positive things for both countries, but in effect it ehhances the power of the mother country through the empowerment and enhancement of economic as well as political clout of the diaspora community in the host country. So the transfer of capital which is a negative for the mother country is compensated by the increase in influence and presence in the major markets for their products.

In the bigger picture these migrations probably have little effect on the macro issues, such as geopolitics and balance of power.

The difference between rich and poor or social inequity is a factor, but I would argue that it affects India more because of hunger, malnutrition, education and skills training for a significant part of the population, as China has progressed quite a bit in these areas:
File:UN Human Development Report 2010 1.PNG - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Since Korea and Taiwan followed a similar development path just two decades ago, we can also assume that China will also reach developed status in another two decades. Japan also went through a rapid modernization and industrialization period after Meiji restoration period, that was at least a century ago. Communist Party in China probably will get more democratized internally although I have no idea when they will switch to a multi-party system and I am not even sure if it is really that important. As long as the govt. is successful in achieving high growth 9-11%, I believe Chinese people will not care much about what type of govt. they have, Only when the govt. fails to perform, there will be questions and demands for change.

Ok, tazzy no hard feelings, sorry if I have misunderstood you. I have seen the video, very informative. Central planning has its problems and income equality is getting worse. People cannot afford the apartments that are for sale. China may have social problems, the question is whether the govt. can weather them, I think they will be able to, because they have cash and since a failure may mean a Soviet style break up with Xinjiang and Tibet trying to get independence, most Chinese will try to avoid a scenario like that.

Gokiburi said it well, China already rules the world. The US may have more fire power and better technology, but economically they may have already lost the war, so its just a matter of time, that China achieves full technology and military dominance. India is not in the picture yet, but it should not be ignored, as it also has similar ambitions.

Lets consider an unthinkable scenario, that suddenly people in the US become conscious of their own interest, stop listening to the 2% elite controlled Republican propaganda, a huge majority of 98% unites under the Democratic party and takes overwhelming control of the 3 branches of govt., executive, congress/senate and overrides the Supreme Court rulings with legislations and even constitutional amendments if needed, in short the people revolt and take back control of the govt. from elite. Then they proceed to kick both China and India from WTO, on the ground of human rights in Xinjiang, Tibet, Kashmir and Indian North East states, based on a world wide consensus in the UN. Will this change China and India's prospects?

But wishes are not horses and the above is a fantasy that will never happen.

I think after the fall of Soviet Union, the US and the EU should have been much more careful in allowing China as well as India market access for their products and services, as these countries will eventually take away Western dominance. Instead of depending on a totally idealistic free market system, which favors large countries like China and India, trade should have been made more strategic, reserved for allies and countries that are smaller than US, which is actually the rest of the world. I think it was a great strategic mistake on the part of the US as well as EU, in my personal opinion.

But if you notice the biggest advantage China and India has, it is their size. EU is an effort to also gain this advantage of size, which the US has over individual European countries.

Is it possible to have a Union going in East Asia like EU, lets say with all countries East of India, all the way to Japan, like the old Greater East Asia Co-prosperity sphere? There is ASEAN 10, but it does not include all countries in this area. Is it possible to gain the advantage of size and weight in such a Union, so countries can collectively face the security threat coming from large countries such as China and India?

There is African Union and there is UNASUR, which eventually may include Mexico and turn it into a Latin American Union. For the time being, there is nothing much noteworthy going on in the Middle-east and Central Asia, that is to the West of India and China. North America, EU, Russian speaking countries could form another Northern Union, but I doubt it will happen, some people are still living in cold war era it seems. Will these kind of Unions help countries and regions gain the advantage of size to withstand the threats from future hegemonic powers like China and India? The threat from the new hegemonic powers is that they will start their game of exploitation and divide and rule like the past great powers once they achieve their global predominance. Britain and France broke apart Ottoman empire, British when they left India, allowed its partition, the US for its part played a lot of nasty games in Latin America for more than a century, while leftists like Trotsky and Che Guevara were trying to unite Latin America. So the situation will be the same with China and India, they will try to create their many layers of sphere of influence, from immediate neighborhood to global. So I believe there is a small window of opportunity of around a decade to make this happen, after that it might be too late as the opposing forces will be high enough to nip any efforts in the bud.

[tokusatsufan]

A few months ago I'd have said yes but I think China might be starting to have problems now.

[tazzy]

Originally Posted by sutekidane

I think it was not clear why Japan's rise was not comparable. It is because Japan's population, is less than half the size of the US. Also, US is not alone, we should consider its close allies such as the EU, whereas Japan was entirely by itself. So compared to the combined economic might of US and EU or the West as it is commonly known, Japan is around 1/6 of the West. So regardless of how high the per capita GDP goes for Japan, it can never, by itself, be a comparable power to the West.

But the situation is fundamentally different with both China and India. China is a fairly homogeneous state like Japan, India is a bit diverse, but it has democracy to tie them together with sufficient representation. Both are 10 times bigger than Japan. So when their per capita GDP rise, they go into a league of their own, unlike any other country in the world.

If the masses are worried in Japan then there is very good reason. It is the political class that are clueless or asleep at the wheel in the US, which I am familiar with. I don't know how the political class is thinking about this problem in Japan, which is why I open this thread.

The US is alone, the EU itself is dubious to count as one unified entity let alone adding it onto the US. Not to mention that there was no EU when Japan was rising.
And yes, as I said there is a difference in that the fears of Japan's rise was based on superior, more efficient workers, each the equivalent of 5 Americans, whereas China's rise is based on a fear of there being so damn many of them, 5 costing the same as one American.
Nonetheless they remain comparable.
Even the Chinese government themselves recognise the similarities and are actively trying to emulate Japan's rise- whilst learning from its mistakes to try and avoid its fall....

And its the opposite really in much of the world. The ignorant masses are worried about China's rise which is of course going to go on forever. Those more informed know this won't be the case.

In Japan though...in Japan they don't just have China's rising economy to deal with but also China as a neighbour. If things go bad for the Chinese economy (as is very very likely happen in the not too distant future) then they might just decide a bit of foreign adventuring is the thing to do to placate the masses. And who better to pick on than the nasty imperialists of Japan? Its an age old strategy for dictatorships.
Already China is making moves to drum up a bit of anti-Japanese nationalism at home.

[tokusatsufan]

Well let's hope there'll always be some Chinese people that don't listen to that government.

[sutekidane]

I guess my post was too long, but I will bold the important part where I ask a question.

Tazzy, if you are talking about rise of Imperial Japan after Meiji restoration period then you are correct, there was no EU then, but if we are talking about rise of Japan after World War II, in the 70's and 80's, then EU has already taken shape by then.

Worker productivity and efficiency goes up once hunger, malnutrition is taken care of and then education and training become more important. But no matter how well a country does, it has a limit and when the limit is reached productivity can then go up because of creativity and innovation. If all countries work force grow up with similar level of nutrition, education and training then no country has any particular edge anymore with just worker productivity, in my opinion. Social cohesion and homogeneity becomes important to keep the country united, but Han Chinese is fairly homogeneous since Han Wu di united China some 2100 years ago:
Emperor Wu of Han - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

After 2nd World War, we have a US which funded the rebuilding of its allies in Europe and in Japan, so these economies became very well integrated. S Korea and Taiwan was added when labor in Japan became too expensive, so that helped the rise of S Korea and Taiwan and when labor became expensive in these two then South East Asia was chosen next, but arrival of China kind of ruined it for them, as it had unlimited supply of cheap labor. Now cheap labor industries are again moving towards South and South East Asia, as China moves up in the ladder of value addition towards higher tech industries.

US also has the NATO which includes EU and North America, but it has presence in Oceania (ANZ), Japan and Korea I think. So this is the security architecture now:
NATO - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I guess I am one of these ignorant masses who are worried about China's rise. I think everyone knows that the rise will not be smooth for a country the size of China, as it already has lost the competitive edge in cheap labor and now it has to compete with the developed countries for manufacturing of bigger items such as cars and planes. But it has the advantage of size, so we can see that it can fund the development of 5th gen. fighters, as it can depend on its own Air Force as the biggest captive customer and also it has become the biggest car market in the world, just to use some examples. They have also made their first medium size passenger plane I think, which the Chinese airlines can use domestically.

The worry about China's rise and the security threat it poses, is not just for Japan, it is for all its neighbors who has to deal with it more closely. Some resource rich countries temporarily benefit, such as Central Asia, Russia and Australia, but the security threat for them is not any less, specially the ones that have common borders with China or are nearby like S Korea and Japan.

So what do people think about EU style Unions in Asia and else-where as a way to counter this threat?