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09-15-2011, 12:30 PM

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Originally Posted by pumpum View Post
My own opinion is this and it is a fact - America is the most corrupt, greedy, hypocritical and murderous empire to have ever existed in human history on this planet, so whoever takes over doesnt really matter to me, they surely could not be worse.
Actually no the bad does not out weight the good through out entire history simple research should tell you this. I take anything with a grain of salt till i can form a non baised opinion. I know the good and the bad about the US just as well any person who is not a "sheep" or jumping on the bandwagon.

wow worst in history huh? Now you are just exaggerating. Rome and England and Spain were far worse and caused more irreversible damage than the US has. There are several other ancient empires they thrived by suppressing.

Due to this i am actually going to compile a list of the major economic powerhouses and their allies and list how each one is corrupt. That should broaden the spectrum a bit.


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09-15-2011, 02:04 PM

i threw out my new zealand citizenship into the garbage can to become closer with my mother's family in the usa. i am an american citizen. and i try not to think about american politics and american military. capitalism is what makes america great. capitalism is the common ground. capitalism is what unite us with the chinese society. it is absolutely simple.

i think america should fund the chinese leadership of unification with taiwan for our long term dominance of world economy. people might say this is absolutely crazy. i think it is the safest way to safeguard america's security by helping china as long as any military intervention is absent.
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09-15-2011, 08:13 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by pumpum View Post
You say that he must look at the good instead of only looking at the bad, but the thing is the BAD so spectacularly outweighs the good so as to make it almost irrelevant.

Maybe it is you who should stop concentrating on the few grains of good and pay more attention to the tidal wave of bad.

As for China ruling the world or impacting the dominance of the USA - The truth is - who knows? we can make logical guesses but they are still just guesses, tomorrow an earthquake could swallow up either country or any other.

My own opinion is this and it is a fact - America is the most corrupt, greedy, hypocritical and murderous empire to have ever existed in human history on this planet, so whoever takes over doesnt really matter to me, they surely could not be worse.
Big earthquakes like the one in Japan or a few years ago in Indonesia, can put a serious dent in a country's economy, with tremendous loss of life and property, but for large nations like China or India, it is easily absorbed, as the losses we have seen so far are relatively small. This does not mean that a really catastrophic earthquake could not happen, but probability of that is so small that it will be pointless to include it in our planning, just as Asteriods hitting the earth is also possible, but probability is too small to keep it in our planning for now.

As far as empires or dominant nation goes, USA being the leading one at the moment, it is not atypical. I will not try to judge its performance and compare them with former leading powers, but Soviet Union, Great Britain, France, Qing China, Romanov Russia, Ottomans, Mughals, Mongols - people who had to face these powers, they also have their stories to tell.

Essentially it is part of human nature, that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. So after Word War II, both the US and Soviet Union emerged as two great powers and both tried to contain each other, while other nations suffered because of the fight between the two titans. When Soviet Union fell apart, mainly because of faulty ideology and less efficient economy, the US became the lone super power of the world. So it committed some serious mistakes since the fall of the Soviets, but it is not unique to the US, others in the past may have done worse. We tend to think negatively about the US, because we see the actions in front of our eyes, happening everyday. Other lesser powers also commit atrocities, but usually they are reserved for their minorities within their border, where it has greater control due to the cherished concept of sovereignty. So China can try to supply Gaddafi in Libya with weapons, to save Gaddafi's murderous regime, but eventually it cannot do much in the face of NATO as well as world opposition. But China continues to run their steam roller on Uyghur and other Turkic Muslims in Xinjiang and the Tibetans in Tibet and in other provinces in China. Mongols in Inner Mongolia face discrimination in their own land taken over by a 90% Han Chinese, Manchu as the former ruling minority, were forced to integrate with the Han and Hui Muslims after a lot of revolts and decimation in Qing era, nowadays live peacefully among the Han population. Demographic invasion, cultural genocide and resource extraction are the modus operandi for China in these "autonomous" regions, supposedly protected and reserved for minorities who were promised autonomy when they were annexed or occupied within China. In India Kashmir Muslims are choked with a virtual military occupation of 800,000 army and security personnel, there is off and on insurgency in the North East Indian states, where people are genetically more South East Asian and are majority Christians.

The other point about empires is that when an empire becomes dominant, it increases the income of its citizenry and over time it makes people more educated and civilized. So if we consider the US before the civil rights era in the 1960's where there was segregation laws in southern states, today's USA with affirmative action and equal opportunity acts is much better. Racism by no means is gone, but compared to 40-50 years ago, things are better and improving. The British, French and other Europeans went through the same evolution as well, over centuries, while Japan went through this evolution after Meiji restoration. Over all humanity is making progress, although there is still a long way to go, to bring this progress to a majority of global population.

Now lets consider the case of China and India. Like Korea, these two countries may achieve middle or high income status in a short span of 4-5 decades, now I know many don't agree with me about this prediction, but lets say for the sake of argument, that this prediction become reality.

I happen to know Korea fairly well, and I know that Koreans as a people are absolutely not ready for international leadership, I think it takes a certain amount of time or certain number of generations for the evolution to take place, even though they already have the income and technology. So if China, in a few decades and India, much later, suddenly find themselves with tremendous world beating economy and the military power that goes with it, then it spells trouble for the world. Not only will their minority suffer more, despite having a bit more money and income, the neighboring nations will bear the brunt of these rising powers. Since there will be no US to bring them under leash, they will:
- grab disputed islands or maritime territory at their will
- take unexplored land in Antarctica mostly between themselves
- steal water from the international rivers they share with neighbors
- meddle in all resource rich regions such as Middle-east, Africa and Latin America, where there are a lot of small and weak states

Essentially, once they achieve dominance, they will start behaving like other super powers before them.

Many people in this thread has expressed that it will not happen and they have presented their arguments, while I have presented my arguments why it may happen. But if these nations eventually achieve world dominance, mainly because of their size and a homogeneous unified majority, Han Chinese ethnic group in case of China and Hindu religious group in case of India, in such a world how can the rest of us, including the US, the EU, Japan and the rest of the world and minorities in these two mega states, protect ourselves from the adverse effect of this possible domination?

Last edited by sutekidane : 09-15-2011 at 08:16 PM.
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09-16-2011, 01:09 AM

I don't disagree that Inda and China have the ability to become world powers, and yes, once they reach that satus they will mess around with smaller neighbors they can bully, it allways happens. However India was a colony of Britain for over 400 years and they think similerly to the english on many things. It is highly probable that they will see China more as a threat and will look to Nato or US as counter balance.

Nor do I disagree that the USA is haveing a down year. This doesn't mean the USA is out of contention simply because it also meets all the requirements for superpower status that you mentioned. Sure we dropped all our marbles, but we can pick them back up.

The US absorbs over 25% of the worlds resources, but if you check historically, once it reached the Pacific it allways did. Even back in the early 1900's it was running in the low 20's.

The New York Yankee's will allways be a threat to win it all, Just like USA is going to be a superpower reguardless of the diddle heads in charge.

Oh and yes, Social security and medicare and all that, it has to go. That's not the government's job and never was. Peeps need to learn to take care of themselves, the USA was founded on the idea you made your own way or you died. You didn't retire, not unless you got rich. Medical was if you could afford it. The USA is a harsh country, roughly 40% of immigrants return to thier native lands cause they can't hack it here. IT's Freedom baby, Liberty stands with those who stand tough, not those who rely on government.

Pumpum; Be glad the US doesn't behave like those old world empires did, as bad as you think we are, it would be far worse. See, we actually try to help people, wether you think so or not I frankly don't care. We spend ( waste) billions saveing people from disease, dictators, famine, natural disasters. Even countries we invade we try to rebuild. Iraq and Afganistan, had we been like Rome, or the Inca's or The Babylonians...they wouldn't exist anymore, they would be molten slag heaps on a glass sheet.

Last edited by Ryzorian : 09-16-2011 at 01:24 AM.
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09-16-2011, 07:03 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryzorian View Post
........
Few comments:

- India was under British Crown for about 90 years
British Raj - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
- before that East India company expanded its rule in India for about 100 years
East India Company - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
- EIC did get a license to trade from Mughals about 400 years back
- here is some historic gdp charts:
Share of GDP: China, India, Japan, Latin America, Western Europe, United States — Visualizing Economics
History of World GDP | The Big Picture
and some future projections:
List of countries by past and future GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Sort button next to the year heading can be used to sort the countries from high to low gdp or reverse.
- newer super powers like the US, cannot and will not behave like older super powers or empires, because acceptable behavior changes with time

I have some questions about Tea Party (TP):

- Do TP people support same sex marriage and abortion?
- Are TP people strongly religious?
- 98% of American households are earning less than $250,000. Do people in TP think that it is better to unite as many as possible, in as big a coalition as possible, regardless of ideology or race, so they can take back control from the top 2% elite?
- Are you familiar with Ayn Rand:
Ayn Rand - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Ayn Rand Indoctrination at American Universities, Sponsored by the Right Wing | Tea Party and the Right | AlterNet
- Are you familiar with the Nordic model?
Nordic model - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
- Are you familiar with Forbes 400:
The 400 Richest Americans sorted by Rank - Forbes.com
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09-16-2011, 11:15 PM

Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth
Chinese Air Force Employment Concepts in the 21st Century
by Roger Cliff, John F. Fei, Jeff Hagen, Elizabeth Hague, Eric Heginbotham, John Stillion
Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth: Chinese Air Force Employment Concepts in the 21st Century | RAND
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand...RAND_MG915.pdf
Quote:
CHAPTER ELEVEN
Conclusions and Implications
The most immediate observation that suggests itself from the analysis of Chinese military publications on air force operations as described in the preceding chapters is how systematic and comprehensive they are. Few militaries in the world have such extensive published documentation on the employment of air forces. The concepts described, moreover, appear to be realistic and practical, drawing on the experience of other air forces in recent conflicts, particularly those of the United States (the PLAAF having had no significant combat experience since the 1950s), but remaining appropriate to the current and near-future capabilities of the PLAAF. ........ Indeed, the United States has not fought a conflict against an adversary capable of challenging its supremacy in the air since at least the Korean War.

A second observation is that, although the PLAAF has traditionally emphasized defensive operations, that is no longer the case, and the United States would likely find the PLAAF to be an aggressive opponent in the event of a conflict. ........ Thus, the PLAAF can be expected to carry the fight to the United States in the form of direct attacks on U.S. air bases and ships. These attacks, moreover, will be carried out not by China’s air force operating in isolation but in coordination with the Second Artillery’s conventional ballistic and cruise missiles. As a consequence, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, U.S. air forces would not be able to regard their bases as sanctuaries safe from enemy attack in a conflict.
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09-17-2011, 01:31 AM

A lot of America's success has to do with it's geographic location. America has coasts on two oceans, and is centrally located between Asia and Europe, while being in close proximity to Central and South America.

For it's size, America is rather sparcely populated, and still has room for population growth. America's geographic latitude make it an excellent location for growing food, and it possesses abundant farmland.

One of the driving forces of the Americam economy is agriculture, and one need which all people have in common is the need to eat. China and India do not have the ability to produce food in abundance, and should their populatons continue to grow, they will become more reliant on America, Mexico, Brazil, and other parts of the Americas to feed them.

Unlike many other countries in the world, America has the ability to be 100% self-reliant in energy, agriculture, and maufacturing, and as such, it will continue to remain strong.
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09-17-2011, 01:41 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by sutekidane View Post
Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth
Chinese Air Force Employment Concepts in the 21st Century
by Roger Cliff, John F. Fei, Jeff Hagen, Elizabeth Hague, Eric Heginbotham, John Stillion
Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth: Chinese Air Force Employment Concepts in the 21st Century | RAND
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand...RAND_MG915.pdf
Several months ago, 3 American Ohio-class ballistic submarines all surfaced in areas not far from China on the same day. These three submarines were all fully armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles, and the load carried by a single of these submarines would be sufficient to cripple China's industrial capacity for years. America possesses more than 3 of these subs.

China has just begun trials of it's first full-size aircraft carrier. America possesses several large carriers, the least of which is several times more capable than the Chinese ship. At least one American carrier group is kept in close proximity to China at all times.

China's standing Army is the world's largest, yet it is geographically isolated, and is mainly a threat to other parts of Asia. An attack against China's Army would be based upon it's logistics and food supplies rather than against the soldiers themselves. A large Army consumes vast amounts of supplies, and will collapse quickly should those supplies be interrupted.
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09-17-2011, 03:32 AM

lol.. this place hasn't changed much. So many people talking out of their ass.

Anyway.. China will never rule the world.

At best it will become the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific region (currently this is the USA).

But I don't think it will ever have the global reach in terms of hard power that the USA had in the latter part of the 20th century.

I think that the USA will lose it's global power status and become a regional power in the coming decades also. That's based on the decline of the USA we're witnessing at the moment with no end in sight.

I think you're all missing the point aswell. The next hundred years or so I think we'll see non-state-actors (Corporations and perhaps ideological movements that transcend national boundaries) as becoming increasingly relevant in International Politics.
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09-17-2011, 10:04 AM

I will answer Sangetsu and Ronin4hire later. In the meantime, here is an old ebook with a lot of information about China's rise from a 1999 perspective, by one of the main author of the ebook in my earlier post:

The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications | RAND
Zalmay Khalilzad was one of the authors of this ebook.

What is interesting is that the threat was not immediately felt in 1999 as Chinese Military strength was not at today's level, but the latest ebook give detailed description of the nature of the threat in minute details.

I would also urge readers to become familiar with RAND corporation, what it is and what people in it actually do:
RAND at a Glance | RAND
History and Mission | RAND

and with the credentials of Roger Cliff, probably one of the main authors of both ebooks that I have posted:
Roger Cliff - Profile | RAND
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