Will China rule the world?

[siokan]

If it is only conventional forces and an army, it is likely to be able to antagonize it. The ability difference of the air force & Navy is great.

There is a possibility of catching up in about 50 years if the Military budget of China is made "(Military budget + 公安 budget) *2".

The troubled-loan cleanup concerning the real estate is necessary ahead of that.　
Government report: 10.7 trillion yuan at 2010 year-end
Bank report(中国人民銀行): 14 trillion yuan
Houses that remain unsold are 110,000 households. @increasing

Déjà Vu........

[sutekidane]

China buys gold, challenges US dollar - Features - Al Jazeera English

Originally Posted by Sangetsu

.............

America's population increase mainly due to Mestizo migration from the South, provide it with reduction in population of European origin who will be less than 50% in 2050. This has already happened in places like California and will happen in other states beginning with South western states. This demographic shift has the potential to destabilize and polarize the nation between white and non-white (although Mestizo's claim them to be white and have in some instances more dislike for Black African Americans) parts and if anything it will weaken the current united and homogeneous character of the US polity where people of European origin are still 65% of the population.

America's geographic location provides it with isolation and the two ponds on both sides provides it with separation from Eurasian land mass, which is good in war time, but China and India's location occupying a good portion of Eurasia provide them with opportunity to build rail and road ways to integrate and trade with other countries within Eurasian land mass more easily and cheaply. China is in the process of building or cooperating with Central Asian countries for building of pipelines, railways and roadways and reduce its transit time to Europe, essentially revitalizing the silk route. That's a tremendous advantage that the American continent does not have. Other than less than a billion living in the American continental land mass, the rest more than five billion of Humanity live in Eurasian and African landmass, which are close to each other and connected by land mass in Sinai/suez area. So this logic stated by Friedman of Stratfor fame, in my opinion, does not hold much water like many of his other premises, because the struggle and warfare today and in the future will be economic rather than people shooting at each other with bullets or missiles.

In this era of global trade, self sufficiency in food growing arable land or energy is hardly a measure of high economic strength, consider the case of Brazil or Saudi Arabia and Japan. Indeed, my prediction is that the US will become kind of a bigger and more advanced version of Brazil (arable land) or Russia (energy) in the coming decades.

Originally Posted by Sangetsu

..............

Don't you think professionals at Rand Corporation have more facts and information to come to a more sound projection about weapon systems superiority than yours, as described in that paper posted? Did you get a chance to read it or at least skim through it and see the sources they are using?

Originally Posted by Ronin4hire

lol.. this place hasn't changed much. So many people talking out of their ass.

Anyway.. China will never rule the world.

At best it will become the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific region (currently this is the USA).

But I don't think it will ever have the global reach in terms of hard power that the USA had in the latter part of the 20th century.

I think that the USA will lose it's global power status and become a regional power in the coming decades also. That's based on the decline of the USA we're witnessing at the moment with no end in sight.

I think you're all missing the point aswell. The next hundred years or so I think we'll see non-state-actors (Corporations and perhaps ideological movements that transcend national boundaries) as becoming increasingly relevant in International Politics.

I give you credit for at least considering that both US and China will become regional powers, which will be true initially, but then the dynamics of change will not stop there in my opinion. Things will change as China and India will not be happy with having less per capita GNP than other smaller countries, once they reach overwhelming military predominance over these much smaller countries. Leveraging their military predominance they will start using coercion and playing imperial games, as all imperial powers or powerful nations have played in the past. Why is that, in my view it is because of a fundamental characteristic of human nature as well as all life forms- will to power, as described by Nietzsche, it is to get power and hold it at any cost. This will not change in just a few decades or centuries, if ever.

Non state actors will have their role, but currently ideologues like OBL have won because of mistakes by the states:
Ten years after the mouse roared - Opinion - Al Jazeera English

and I would say that corporations (MNC's) have won also because of failure of the states. So there is a learning curve to learn how to deal with them by the states, but states have way too much power to retreat and be side lined. Democracies and people in them will reassert and take back power in their hand, so there is no longer a rule By corporation, Of Corporation and For corporation like the US, that makes mistakes and engages the ideologue non-state actors. If the US cannot get out this phase quickly it will only help other powerful states like China and India to take over the global scene.

US corporations have committed treasonous acts by weakening the economic power and hence total power of the US, but corporations in other states will not be allowed this liberty I believe. The public in the US need to wake up, people in these other rising powers are already wide awake and alert, I believe they will not allow their corporations to travel a path that will take down their country.

[sutekidane]

Originally Posted by siokan

If it is only conventional forces and an army, it is likely to be able to antagonize it. The ability difference of the air force & Navy is great.

There is a possibility of catching up in about 50 years if the Military budget of China is made "(Military budget + 公安 budget) *2".

The troubled-loan cleanup concerning the real estate is necessary ahead of that.　
Government report: 10.7 trillion yuan at 2010 year-end
Bank report(中国人民銀行): 14 trillion yuan
Houses that remain unsold are 110,000 households. @increasing
Déjà Vu........

These are short term problems that does not change the macro picture. South Korea and Taiwan made many mistakes during their rise, today both have achieved developed status, I believe China will do the same by 2050 at the latest, if not much sooner. The house prices can be reduced and easier loan terms given by the govt. to sell them very quickly, if and when they want to. There is plenty of people that need the houses, it is just that they do not have the buying power, upfront cash down payment and income level to pay them off timely at this point. Unlike Japan where there was not enough buyers, and Thailand where there was capitalistic economy, China still have plenty of buyers who want the houses and a central planning economy that can make quick decisions without consideration for market forces.

[hitotsz]

Originally Posted by sutekidane

Big earthquakes like the one in Japan or a few years ago in Indonesia, can put a serious dent in a country's economy, with tremendous loss of life and property, but for large nations like China or India, it is easily absorbed, as the losses we have seen so far are relatively small. This does not mean that a really catastrophic earthquake could not happen, but probability of that is so small that it will be pointless to include it in our planning, just as Asteriods hitting the earth is also possible, but probability is too small to keep it in our planning for now.

As far as empires or dominant nation goes, USA being the leading one at the moment, it is not atypical. I will not try to judge its performance and compare them with former leading powers, but Soviet Union, Great Britain, France, Qing China, Romanov Russia, Ottomans, Mughals, Mongols - people who had to face these powers, they also have their stories to tell.

Essentially it is part of human nature, that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. So after Word War II, both the US and Soviet Union emerged as two great powers and both tried to contain each other, while other nations suffered because of the fight between the two titans. When Soviet Union fell apart, mainly because of faulty ideology and less efficient economy, the US became the lone super power of the world. So it committed some serious mistakes since the fall of the Soviets, but it is not unique to the US, others in the past may have done worse. We tend to think negatively about the US, because we see the actions in front of our eyes, happening everyday. Other lesser powers also commit atrocities, but usually they are reserved for their minorities within their border, where it has greater control due to the cherished concept of sovereignty. So China can try to supply Gaddafi in Libya with weapons, to save Gaddafi's murderous regime, but eventually it cannot do much in the face of NATO as well as world opposition. But China continues to run their steam roller on Uyghur and other Turkic Muslims in Xinjiang and the Tibetans in Tibet and in other provinces in China. Mongols in Inner Mongolia face discrimination in their own land taken over by a 90% Han Chinese, Manchu as the former ruling minority, were forced to integrate with the Han and Hui Muslims after a lot of revolts and decimation in Qing era, nowadays live peacefully among the Han population. Demographic invasion, cultural genocide and resource extraction are the modus operandi for China in these "autonomous" regions, supposedly protected and reserved for minorities who were promised autonomy when they were annexed or occupied within China. In India Kashmir Muslims are choked with a virtual military occupation of 800,000 army and security personnel, there is off and on insurgency in the North East Indian states, where people are genetically more South East Asian and are majority Christians.

The other point about empires is that when an empire becomes dominant, it increases the income of its citizenry and over time it makes people more educated and civilized. So if we consider the US before the civil rights era in the 1960's where there was segregation laws in southern states, today's USA with affirmative action and equal opportunity acts is much better. Racism by no means is gone, but compared to 40-50 years ago, things are better and improving. The British, French and other Europeans went through the same evolution as well, over centuries, while Japan went through this evolution after Meiji restoration. Over all humanity is making progress, although there is still a long way to go, to bring this progress to a majority of global population.

Now lets consider the case of China and India. Like Korea, these two countries may achieve middle or high income status in a short span of 4-5 decades, now I know many don't agree with me about this prediction, but lets say for the sake of argument, that this prediction become reality.

I happen to know Korea fairly well, and I know that Koreans as a people are absolutely not ready for international leadership, I think it takes a certain amount of time or certain number of generations for the evolution to take place, even though they already have the income and technology. So if China, in a few decades and India, much later, suddenly find themselves with tremendous world beating economy and the military power that goes with it, then it spells trouble for the world. Not only will their minority suffer more, despite having a bit more money and income, the neighboring nations will bear the brunt of these rising powers. Since there will be no US to bring them under leash, they will:
- grab disputed islands or maritime territory at their will
- take unexplored land in Antarctica mostly between themselves
- steal water from the international rivers they share with neighbors
- meddle in all resource rich regions such as Middle-east, Africa and Latin America, where there are a lot of small and weak states

Essentially, once they achieve dominance, they will start behaving like other super powers before them.

Many people in this thread has expressed that it will not happen and they have presented their arguments, while I have presented my arguments why it may happen. But if these nations eventually achieve world dominance, mainly because of their size and a homogeneous unified majority, Han Chinese ethnic group in case of China and Hindu religious group in case of India, in such a world how can the rest of us, including the US, the EU, Japan and the rest of the world and minorities in these two mega states, protect ourselves from the adverse effect of this possible domination?

How long did it take you to write all this?

[acjama]

Originally Posted by hitotsz

How long did it take you to write all this?

Probably much longer than it took you to repost the entire text without adding anything to the conversation.

Please, consider what and how you're posting. Then people will stop skipping them.

[Ronin4hire]

Originally Posted by sutekidane

I give you credit for at least considering that both US and China will become regional powers, which will be true initially, but then the dynamics of change will not stop there in my opinion. Things will change as China and India will not be happy with having less per capita GNP than other smaller countries, once they reach overwhelming military predominance over these much smaller countries. Leveraging their military predominance they will start using coercion and playing imperial games, as all imperial powers or powerful nations have played in the past. Why is that, in my view it is because of a fundamental characteristic of human nature as well as all life forms- will to power, as described by Nietzsche, it is to get power and hold it at any cost. This will not change in just a few decades or centuries, if ever.

Non state actors will have their role, but currently ideologues like OBL have won because of mistakes by the states:
Ten years after the mouse roared - Opinion - Al Jazeera English

and I would say that corporations (MNC's) have won also because of failure of the states. So there is a learning curve to learn how to deal with them by the states, but states have way too much power to retreat and be side lined. Democracies and people in them will reassert and take back power in their hand, so there is no longer a rule By corporation, Of Corporation and For corporation like the US, that makes mistakes and engages the ideologue non-state actors. If the US cannot get out this phase quickly it will only help other powerful states like China and India to take over the global scene.

US corporations have committed treasonous acts by weakening the economic power and hence total power of the US, but corporations in other states will not be allowed this liberty I believe. The public in the US need to wake up, people in these other rising powers are already wide awake and alert, I believe they will not allow their corporations to travel a path that will take down their country.

Well your "prediction" is one possible outcome of many. I don't think you can really predict with any confidence that this is what will happen.

I mean there are so many things to consider...

How will a growing middle class and an increasingly marginalized working class react in the face of authoritarian rule?

How will the dwindling of fossil fuels effect that willingness of governments to maintain energy guzzling military machines required to project their influence globally in the next hundred or so years?

How will the "middle powers" react to Chinese and American competition for strategic influence? And what will the effect be? (I mean it's not going to be like the cold war where middle powers will align themselves with one or the other... Middle powers in the current International political climate are actually in a position to play the USA and China off against each other for their OWN political gain which is what is happening already in South East Asia).

Bottom line is that I think you're getting way ahead of yourself...

[Ryzorian]

Al jazeera is basically the Arab version of Fox, just a propaganda machine. China's airforce is basically carbon copies of American planes. Copies never fight as well as orgianals. China may be aggressive in tactics and may even attack American bases. If so, good, Pearl Harbor is what woke the US up last time. Sometimes you need a good kick in the shins. Carthage, in the end, made Rome stronger.

America will recieve a large flood of European immigrants in next 30 years as the Muslim population soars in central Europe. Also, Hispanics are basically European, leastways last time I checked Spain was in Europe, this is also indicated in this years census as some hispanics are now starting to list themselves as white.

The Tea Party is difficult to pin down as it's a large group of various sub groups with little central leadership. By in large the majority of Tea party people believe that government should be smaller, spend less, be less intrusive and stop messing around so much in other countries. AS to Abortion and the other things you raised, most tea party people think those should be left up to individual states and not be left in the hands of an overseer government.

The US can fix it's corperations by repealing Nafta, WTO BS, and drop China from favored nation status. They also can tell them, "if you build it overseas, sell it over seas, don't bring it back here."

[Ronin4hire]

Stop talking out of your ass Ryozorian.

[GoNative]

Originally Posted by Ryzorian

Al jazeera is basically the Arab version of Fox, just a propaganda machine. ."

Have you ever actually watched much Al Jazeera? I've actually found it to be a quality news source and one in which you get to see things from a slightly different viewpoint. I think the quality of the journalism is almost on par with the BBC. I haven't found it anywhere near as partisan or sensationalist as Fox is.

[Ronin4hire]

Originally Posted by GoNative

Have you ever actually watched much Al Jazeera? I've actually found it to be a quality news source and one in which you get to see things from a slightly different viewpoint. I think the quality of the journalism is almost on par with the BBC. I haven't found it quite anywhere near as partisan or sensationalist as Fox is.

Agree completely.

Ryzorian is just regurgitating the same old Right wing American talking points mixed in with his own brand of delusion.