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09-19-2011, 03:20 AM
Given China's overall history, it'll eventually come crashing down in flames due to purely domestic problems. Been that way since, oh, the Zhuo Dynasty.
 Foreign-policy wise China fears: * A rebirth of Japan. * A rebirth of Russia. * The rise of India (which has more treaties with the Occident than it does with China, being a former part of the British Empire; India is also a part of the British Commonwealth). * A strong European Union. * A renewed United States. Red China also seems to be paranoid about the followers of Sun-Yat Sen. The Wise One has spoken the words in the hall, needful for men to know.
Hail the speaker, hail to who knows, Joy to him who understood. 
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09-19-2011, 07:11 AM
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09-19-2011, 08:24 AM
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Now let's address the points you have raised: - democratization of China is a much debated subject, the RAND paper from 1998 goes into it in much detail. My personal view is that Chinese civil society and netizens are quite united in their consensus, that as long as the Communist Party keep producing results, they will not rock the boat, considering the collective self-interest of the Chinese nation, but the moment they start failing and stop producing the stellar growth rates of 9-11%, the communist party will be in trouble and there will be a period of instability during which either the party structure will become truly democratic instead of its current nepotism based system or there will be the ushering in of a multi-party democratic era for China. Since India already has a more "democratic" structure in name and function, this may give India the opportunity to catch up with China a little. But for China it will be just another phase in the evolution of their nation, after the fall of the Manchu Qing dynasty and the rise of Han Chinese self rule and it will not affect the eventual geopolitical outcomes with regards to China's prospect as the preeminent global power - about Fossil fuels, China is in a good position, because of the rift caused by GWOT between Muslim world and the US, so now many Muslim nations are hedging their bets with China. Pakistan's nuke development had Chinese help as well as Saudi funding, some say that Saudi's have some secret pacts with Pakistan about the usage of nukes, or at least having a nuke umbrella in a regional threat perspective. So the GWOT has been a disaster for the US on many respects, this loss of Muslim confidence and trust being just one of the more vital ones, who are now hoping for a new rising China that can provide some balance. With Central Asian Caspian gas and oil within the reach of its pipe lines, Russian far east within easy reach, Pakistan and Saudi's getting ever closer and isolated and pariah Iran which is already pretty close - Chinese are quite well positioned I should say. If Obama keeps on with his GWOT carry over crusade from Bush, then it will continue to make Chinese position better every passing day - middle powers like Japan, Russia, Germany, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia etc. are 1/5 to 1/10 the size of China or India, so they are no match, playing off can work for a few years, but soon they will be totally over powered as the rate of rise is much faster for these two largest nations. To counter this situation, I have proposed in this thread that US should lead some further integration of nation states in the style of EU, such as: - US, EU, Russian speaking countries, ANZ - African Union - Latin American Union including Mexico - Turkic Union with Turkey + Central Asian 5 stans + possibly South Asian 2 stans + Mongolia - expanded GCC to cover all Arab nations in Asian continent except Iraq - Iraq+Iran in a shia group - a new greater East Asia Co-prosperity sphere that will cover all nations South and East of China and India So when these nations are united into bigger units and can co-operate under US leadership, they will be able to withstand the divide and rule machinations and resource exploitation by ever more powerful two largest nations. In a more united and developed Latin America and Africa with local creation of jobs, this will also work to stem migrations from these places to US and EU respectively. Tea Party groups are misguided and are being used by the corporations. Southern Democrats moving over to the Republican party (Lincoln's party of abolition), during Johnson's civil rights era, that started with Goldwater and finished with Reagan's election was a great loss for the Democratic Party. American Corporations used religious revivalism of the Evangelical movement to create a voting base for the Republican Party to compensated for their loss after the new deal and glass steagal act and indocrinated the religious right with Ayn Rand's (a died in the wool atheist) small govt. and anti-tax liberterianism, which is a contradiction of the highest order if you think about "what would Jesus do" who fought all his life to serve the poor, the sick and the downtrodden. In my personal opinion, as long as Democratic party continue to be enslaved by the ultra liberal causes such as same sex marriage and abortion rights, then it will not be able to bring a good portion of the more sensible religious people back in their camp. The problem of religiosity is not just a problem in the US, it is a global or a human problem. Along with the importance of size of nations, this is another of my theories/hypothesis, I call it Historical Continuity, that nations or societies cannot be forced to accept what they are not ready for, it takes time and evolution with slow and voluntary changes, whether it is racial integration or more liberal ideas. So in my proposed roadmap, the US can have a New American Century, if it can take up the following projects: - start a Democratic version of the neo-con so it is possible to bring back as many of the religious independents and conservatives to their side, by dumping the liberal causes for the time being and make them states rights issues, to be decided by individual states - then use the main ethnic sections of the US population to organize the global population, the Euro-Americans to be integrated with other European populations as described above, while the Hispanic-Americans would lead the effort to create the Latin American Union, African Americans would lead the effort to create a stronger unified African Union (a dream of Malcolm X), Arabs and Asians also playing their respective part in their corner of the world - the only people that would be left alone would be Chinese and Indian Americans who has to be won over to the US side, as their fate and future is now more tied with USA and its future Now, this is what I would call "getting way ahead of" myself, if I may use these words. So rather than thinking in terms of WTO or NAFTA, which never considered planetary management when they were designed, in my opinion, we should start looking at things from a new planetary perspective, to ensure a smooth planetary geopolitical evolution, without any threat from upstarts like China or India, who are not ready for global leadership, in my personal opinion. In this new paradigm, trade has to be the primary strategic weapon to achieve desired results. So corporations and their profit motive should not decide what a trade regime should be, but it should be the working people and their true representative who will decide what trade should take place to protect the interest of each individual nation state or group of nation states, as well as to protect global stability, ensure a smooth evolutionary transition into the future and thus avoid another World War which will be catastrophic for humanity.
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09-19-2011, 08:08 PM
Ronin4hire, Gonative; You only say that about jazeera because you happen to agree with what they say. Of course anything someone who says things you agree would seem "fair and reasonable". Your both radical and can't understand why anyone would say jazeera is radical because you agree with alot of what they say. It's perfectly Normal human responses really, Communists didn't think Stalin was a dictator because they believed in him being a "dictator".
World government would be the biggest threat to personal freedom ever created. Hitler's nazi's would look like amatures compared to that.
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09-19-2011, 09:35 PM
The US has a small window of opportunity before the situation reaches the point of no return. Once that happens, many nations may side with the new rising hegemonic powers, regardless of how barbaric they are, because no one will want to side with losers.
My recommendation for the nations of the world would be to consider the worst case scenario and plan accordingly. Cooperative Unions of smaller nations would be the best option to protect national interest in the long term, in a world dominated by the shadow of large nation states. Waiting for the US to wake up and provide the necessary leadership may not be an option for most, specially who are close neighbors to the two largest nations.
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09-19-2011, 10:02 PM
China-India Competition: Is a Military Clash Inevitable? - TIME
The Public Affairs Magazine- Newsinsight.net The saber rattling between the two largest states of the world will only get worse with time. It will take these two nations into war footing and will help develop their weapons technology. All the more reason for the world to divert trading with these two and stop their enrichment and empowerment, so they do not destroy themselves and the world with it. Also two interesting articles, one with the opposing view, made popular by brilliant realists like Kissinger, why the US should embrace China more to avoid the inevitable conflict: Red Dawn - China's Rise - By Charles Kenny | Foreign Policy and then the "real" reality on the ground: Avoiding Armageddon with China | Shadow Government
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09-20-2011, 02:44 AM
I don't believe in "embrassing" to avoid fighting, that didn't work with germany in WW2 either. If fighting has to happen cause the differences are just too great, then so be it.
Too often people think liveing is more important than how your liveing. Sometimes it is and sometimes it's not. Some folks are fine being a slave if it means liveing, some folks are not.
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09-20-2011, 03:04 AM
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Video Games: Serious Business 
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09-20-2011, 08:14 AM
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09-21-2011, 02:35 AM
600 million in poverty can do that, so China, despite it's advances has too many internal problems to worry about.
Sciffix; I don't Deny the US has meddled in south and central American polatics for a long time. While the idea of "unilateral" sounds good on paper, it's all just a shakedown of American money for south and central America based on some "past imperialist transgretions" Ponzi skeem. Besides, US is broke, so guess "unilateral" isn't going to happen.
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