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Economy Taking Some Tussin? -
08-18-2009, 06:50 AM
Seems the Japanese economy has been hitting the cold medicine.
66% of major Japan firms expect recovery by early 2010: poll | The Japan Times Online Thoughts? Personally, I've been saying since last year when this all started that, while there are some forces beyond our immediate control that do indeed need fixing, the economy is only going to be as bad as people make it. In America, you've got Fox News and CNN and everybody running around screaming about how horrible the economy is, businesses laying off left and right citing a poor economy instead of adjusting their business models to compensate, and so on. People are spending less money because "the economy is bad", however, doing so does, in turn, MAKE the economy worse. Spending money responsibly and hiring workers has, for hundreds of years, boosted nations' economies. This is just how I feel. What do you all think? なんてしつけいいこいいけつしてんな。 
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08-18-2009, 01:23 PM
well its a bit more complicated than that, but yes you are fundamentally right.
however, putting on a smiley face, and not saying the economy is bad (which it is) doesnt get you a job. heres the thing, in a nutshell, a bunch of investors thought the markets were going too high too fast so they bailed out while they could. because of this alot of banks started losing money in their funds, so they in turn bailed out. however, they forgot that alot of "their" money wasnt actually "their" money, and that by jumping out quick they were actually making things worse for themselves. so things spiral out of hand the way they did which led to lehmans collapse, etc, etc,... companies tighten their belts cos their lines of credit are not renewed, so eventually people get fired, cant find jobs, tighten their belts and start saying the economy sucks. when enough people say it sucks, it starts sucking for enough people. its just the way we humans think. and no the media aint exactly helping, but then they are the media, its their job to pander. having said that, i think i prefer the fear mongering compared to the "everything is loverly" type of news the majority of japan gets fed. but maybe they were tired of years and years of what the west is only just going through now. it certainly hasnt helped to lift the economy a smidgen. things will get better and i think the prevailing concensus is that the worst is behind us. now its just a matter of how friggin slow the recovery will be. and its more than likely that the media will be partly responsible for all the stops and starts as they keep saying, "its been 5 minutes and nothing is getting better!!!" like they dont understand that a global economy is bound to take time to catch up to better sentiment. the world is always about 6-12 months behind market sentiment so things wont be geting better for another 4 quarters i reckon. but the simple fact is that businesses dont have their old lines of credit anymore. without that they cant buy raw materials, so they have to lay people off if they are going to keep some jobs instead of going belly up completely. heres the thing tho, i know all that it will take is for 5 billion people to go out and simultaneous buy stuff tomorrow. but if i dont know if i'll have a job tomorrow, and if i dont have savings incase i get canned i'm not buy a stick of gum let alone a damn car. and if i feel that way, then i'm not about to try and tell myself that it isnt bad now am i? sentiment is what started this, it is what is continuing it, and it is the only thing that will get us out. funny isnt it how our physical lives, our houses, our pensions, etc,.... all rely on something as intangible as sentiment, and not even our own. how sad is that? oy long ass reply.
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08-21-2009, 12:12 AM
One thing you will find about Asian companies is that they are usually very sensitive about changes in the economy. It's rare that they are caught by surprise by tough economic times, they seem to have a better grasp on economical trends. That's not to say that they sometimes succumb to hard times and fail, but those occasions are the exception, and not the rule.
In America there were a couple of years of reports about the potential disaster waiting when the housing bubble burst, but people and businesses remained oblivious. "Why worry about tomorrow? It's such a bummer, and how can you enjoy the moment when you are actually thinking about the future?" Banks continued lending, even as the number of defaults increased, car companies continued producing gas-guzzlers, even as gasoline approached $4 a gallon. Some people in America blamed capitalism and corporate greed, saying that the government wasn't doing enough to control things like pay for CEOs, or making the car manufacturers produce more fuel-efficient cars. But this was all nonsense. The better part of the blame rested with the people themselves. They were the ones who bought homes they couldn't afford, racked up an average of $13,000 per household of credit card debt, bought cars that used too much gas, and saved almost no money. The government made it's share of mistakes as well, primarily by keeping the interest rates artificially low, so as to "stimulate growth", by requiring banks to enact "equal lending" policies, which meant that banks were required to lend money to people with questionable credit, and building infrastructure primarily for cars instead of focusing on trains, subways, or other forms of transportation. It is much different in Asian countries, particularly Japan. The government does support a lot of industry by various means, but the people are generally responsible. They do not buy homes, cars, and other things which they cannot afford, and they save a very large percentage of their income. Housewives calculate their spending and savings down to a single yen. Since the people here are more responsible with their spending, growth occurs on a more modest and sustainable scale. The Japanese companies which suffer the most are the ones which rely on overseas sales in America for the majority of their profit. But even they have managed their companies in such a way as to survive when tough economic times come around (which they always do from time to time). But even American companies do see a light at the end of the tunnel. An America CEO whom I know has been very accurate in his reading of the economy over the last several years (his company continued to earn strong profits even when things were at their worst), and he is predicting recovery and growth in 2010.
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08-21-2009, 02:25 AM
Thanks for your replies! Extremely educational :3
I'm glad things seem to have bottomed out finally and are headed back up. I've spent most of this recession trying to figure out what triggered it, and I've found that there are just too many factors to blame one particular thing such as capitalism or greed, though those certainly haven't helped. (Incidentally, I find it interesting how the right-wingers in America scream unholy murder about Obama being a "socialist". This isn't true, but even if it were, it's not like capitalism has done so well for us...  )My only hope is that we've learned from all this. I wonder if there has been a collapse like this one as a result largely of the housing sector (which I believe is one of theprimary causes this time around) in the past? If not, I certainly hope some people have learned their lesson... なんてしつけいいこいいけつしてんな。
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08-22-2009, 12:38 AM
Quote:
なんてしつけいいこいいけつしてんな。
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08-22-2009, 01:44 AM
the problem with trying to pin down what triggers economic events is that one step back will lead you to another step back and another and another until you get to your grandfathers time.
for example, you can pin this on the mortgage problem, but then what made mortgages so affordable? the low interest rates,... but what made them so low? the crap economy in the early 2000's, why was it crap? 9-11,.. but wait it was crappy before 9-11,... well yes but it made it worse,.... ok well why was it bad before 9-11? the economy was recovering from the dot com crash,..... and on and on ad nauseum...... you can learn from past periods of economic uncertainty, and alot of people compared this to the 1930's, but people only look back for help after something crap happens,.... hey rarely look back to see if something good happening might be a precursor to something bad. so yea we've learned from this,... for now. you and i will remember this for a long time to come,.... but at some point in the near future we will forget, and it will most likely be when a "reliable source" has a hot stock tip for us, and we'll all say "this time its different" :P its just human nature and cant be pinned down to an "ism" or a broad concept like greed.
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08-22-2009, 06:53 AM
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08-22-2009, 11:50 PM
Koizumi looks evil? He is one of the most popular Prime Ministers in recent history, and most Japanese people would strongly disagree with you- have a search for some other phtotos of him and see if you still think so. Whether the current economic situation is largely his fault is a matter for debate.
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08-23-2009, 12:14 AM
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In a South Korean perspective, he did screw up a lot of trade issues with South Korea that still plagues today. When the DPJ comes into power, there will be more LDP+Koizumi bashfest following eventually.
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